detailed fallout prediction. From the detailed fallout prediction, you
must be able to prepare an NBC 3 (Nuclear) Report. Once the report is
prepared, you must be able to employ the various means for disseminating
the report down to the unit commanders requiring the information.
Fallout Prediction
Fallout prediction is a procedure of estimating probable areas of
radiological contamination from a nuclear burst before the actual arrival
of fallout. The detailed fallout prediction is normally prepared by the
NBCE. It is based on NBC 2 (Nuclear) Reports (evaluated data), or target
analysis information, and upper air wind data. The upper air wind data
are rapidly processed into a fallout wind vector plot each time they are
received. With a current wind vector plot, the NBCE can have a detailed
fallout prediction ready for dissemination in a matter of minutes after
required nuclear burst information is available.
To fully understand detailed fallout prediction procedures, you must be
able to:
Prepare a wind vector plot
Determine nuclear burst information
Determine cloud parameters
Rake an initial determination of the lateral limits of the
fallout
Determine the effective wind speed
Determine downwind distance of Zone's I and II
Measure azimuths of left and right radial lines
Draw the detailed fallout prediction
1.
Preparation of Fallout Wind Vector Plot.
Prepare the fallout wind vector plot as described in Subcourse CM3401.
If you have not taken Subcourse CM 3401 and feel that you need
instructions or refresher training on the preparation of a wind vector
plot, refer to Appendix C in the Supplemental Booklet. The fallout wind
vector plot is prepared each time new upper air wind data are received.
Every prediction made from the current fallout wind vector plot should be
prepared on a separate overlay so that the current fallout wind vector
plot may be saved for further use. The fallout wind vector plot may be
drawn to any convenient map scale. (Figure 4-1).
CM2307
4-2
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