b. The Simplified Method.
The simplified method can be used by any unit in preparing fallout
predictions. The simplified method employs a simplified fallout predictor
a field-constructed simplified fallout predictor. In a nuclear war, it may
be expected that small, mobile units will be operating in widely dispersed
In such situations, receipt of a detailed fallout prediction, NBC 3
(Nuclear) Report, from major command headquarters may be delayed for
significant periods of time. The simplified procedure provides small unit
commanders an immediate capability of estimating the location of a potential
fallout hazard, thereby allowing greater unit self-sufficiency.
estimate made of the fallout hazard using the simplified method will be less
accurate than that made using the detailed method.
Significance of Predicted Fallout Zones.
In both simplified and detailed prediction, the predicted zones define those
areas within which exposed, unprotected personnel may receive militarily
in their combat effectiveness, within 4 hours after actual arrival of
A zone of primary hazard (Zone I) and one of secondary hazard
(Zone II) are predicted.
a. Primary Hazard (Zone I).
Zone I delineates the area of primary hazard and is called the Zone of
Immediate Operational Concern. It is defined as a zone within which there
will be areas where exposed, unprotected personnel may receive doses of 150
centigrays, the emergency risk dose, or greater, in relatively short periods
of time, less than 4 hours after actual arrival of fallout.
disruptions of unit operations and casualties among personnel may occur
within portions of this zone.
The actual areas of major disruption are
expected to be smaller than the entire area of Zone I; however, the exact
locations cannot be predicted. The exact dose which personnel will receive
at any location inside Zone I is dependent upon the dose rate at their
location, the time of exposure, and protection available.
however, a reasonably high assurance that personnel outside the boundary of
Zone I will not be exposed to an emergency risk dose in less than 4 hours.
The radiation produced from neutron-induced activity will be closely
confined to the area around ground zero, which will be well within the
limits of Zone I. The induced radiation will therefore have no effect on
the extent of Zone I but will cause higher dose rates in the area around
ground zero. Thus, the dose