PART A - INTRODUCTION TO FALLOUT PREDICTIONS
There are many occasions when a commander will require a fallout prediction.
Three occasions that may occur are:
When the commander plans the use of a nuclear weapon that lacks a
99-percent probability of being fallout safe or whenever a
contact backup fuze is used, a prestrike fallout prediction is
prepared as part of the target analysis.
When information indicates that fallout is occurring or that
fallout probably will occur from a nuclear burst (friendly or
enemy), a fallout prediction is required to enable the commander
to warn higher, adjacent, and subordinate units.
When a fallout-producing burst occurs, an evaluating procedure is
initiated which will answer the commander's questions about the
fallout hazard. However, a time lag of several hours to a day or
more may occur between the time of burst and the availability of
measured data (from radiological monitoring and/or survey), which
would permit evaluation of the actual hazard. During this time
lag, the fallout prediction (area of expected hazard), or at best
the fallout prediction supplemented by measured radiation data,
may be the only available information for estimating the effects
of the radiation hazard on tactical operations or plans.
This
time lag occurs because meaningful measured data cannot be
obtained until fallout in an area of interest is complete.
Militarily significant fallout in an area may not be complete for
a period of several hours after the burst, depending upon the
yield, distance from ground zero (GZ), and upper air wind
structure. The obtaining of measured data may also be delayed by
the difficulties of night survey or the operational situation.
Several additional hours may be required for the reporting and
processing of measured data into usable form.
1.
Fallout Prediction Procedures.
To satisfy command requirements at all echelons, two procedures for
predicting fallout from a single detonation are established as explained
below.
a. The Detailed Method.
The detailed method is used by the NBCE in preparing fallout predictions at
headquarters having a meteorological capability.
These predictions are
employed by commands and subordinate units.
CM5206
3-2
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