ZULU

240600Z

ALFA

080015

BRAVO

085015

CHARLIE

090016

DELTA

100010

ECHO

110025

FOXTROT

120020

At 240730Z a nuclear burst occurred at a point estimated to be MN553298. A

measurement of the flash-to-bang time and nuclear burst cloud width

indicates an estimated yield of 16 KT.

Use the M5A2 Radiological Fallout Area Predictor to make a fallout

prediction. The estimated yield (16 KT) lies within the yield group CHARLIE

(5+ to 30 KT).

Therefore, use the effective downwind direction and

effective wind speed from line CHARLIE of the effective downwind message,

and use the "C" semicircle on the fallout predictor.

From the nomogram on the predictor, using a yield of 16 KT and an effective

wind speed of 16 kilometers per hour, read the downwind distance of the Zone

of Immediate Operational Concern (Zone I) to be 18 kilometers. Draw an arc

between the radial lines of the predictor at a distance of 18 kilometers

downwind from ground zero.

Double this distance, and draw a second arc

between the radial lines of the predictor at a distance of 36 kilometers

downwind from ground zero.

Draw straight lines tangent to the 30 KT cloud radius semicircle and

extending to the intersection points of the Zone I arc with the radial

lines. The area enclosed by the two lines, the 30 KT semicircle and the 18

kilometer arc, is the predicted Zone of Immediate Operational Concern (Zone

I).

The area enclosed by the 18 kilometer and 36 kilometer arcs and the

radial lines is the predicted Zone of Secondary Hazard (Zone II).

Draw a series of dashed arcs at distances equal to the product of the

effective wind speed (16 kilometers per hour) and the hours of interest

after the burst to represent the estimated times of arrival of fallout (16

kilometers at H + 1 and 32 kilometers at H + 2).

Arcs that fall outside

Zone II need not be drawn.

Draw a straight line from the center of the azimuth dial through the

effective downwind direction (90 degrees) on the azimuth dial, and label the

line grid north (GN). Place the center of the azimuth dial on the predictor

over the estimated GZ (MN553298) on the map (the scales of the map and

predictor must

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